Actualized ethnic tensions and instabilities could prevent Montenegro from joining the European Union, said Ivana Stradner, a research associate at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, in an interview with the Voice of America.
“Montenegro has joined NATO and has successfully implemented numerous reforms, so everyone should support its membership in the European Union. However, ethnic tensions have intensified in Montenegro and instabilities will prevent it from joining the EU. Also, I think that it is problematic that in the current Montenegrin administration there are different blocs whose interests are very different. We are aware of the possible consequences of situations where states are polarized from within. It is still unknown whether it will be a new member state – the most important thing is to first resolve the deep ethnic tensions that are growing in Montenegro”, states Stradner.
Asked whether the government has the capacity to resist the political turmoil in the country, Stradner said she had no doubt that some leaders would like to see Montenegro as part of the EU, but most leaders in the Balkans are only calling for membership – because that is currently popular.
“Having in mind the polarization in the country and the increased tensions, which are sometimes fueled by Belgrade, all this makes the path to membership more difficult for Montenegro. No one will benefit from any turmoil in Montenegro, and more attention needs to be paid to current tensions,” Stradner said.
And then she adds.
“When you talk about the Montenegrin authorities – the real question is who is it? The current situation in the Montenegrin government raises the issue. It is very polarized. There are so many blocs within it that have very different aspirations towards the European Union. So I can't say that the Montenegrin authorities are united around that goal. One part considers that membership to be the ultimate goal, while the other part of the members of the executive branch is committed to being as far away from membership as possible,” says Stradner.
She says that the situation with Belgrade is very interesting and complicated – having in mind the roles of the Serbian and Montenegrin Orthodox Churches.
“It seems that the tensions are the strongest in the last few years. Belgrade needs to talk more with Montenegro and the current regime there – because the two countries would not benefit from the escalation of ethnic tensions,” Stradner said.
Asked whether Belgrade would be willing to make Montenegro's path to the European Union or other regional initiatives more difficult, Stradner said such a thing would not be reasonable.
“The real issue regarding Belgrade's accession to Montenegro is the role of the church, and that is something that needs to be paid attention to. So, it is not just EU or NATO membership. I think it all has a lot to do with the Orthodox Church,” Stradner said.