The current government of Montenegro is loose, and the ruling coalition is a “marriage of convenience”, which should last until the institutions are completely taken over, when the dissolution will begin, analyst, political commentator and journalist of Jutarnji list Vlado Vurusic assessed for Aktuelno.
The way out of the crisis, he says, is not foreseen in the near future, because it is obvious that no one trusts anyone, and everyone is careful towards the other not to fall out of the game.
The current ruling coalition, especially the Democratic Front, as he stated, does not want to cause the fall of the Government and Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic, although they would gladly do so, because that ensures their survival in power for now.
The ruling coalition is on a thin line
The interlocutor of Aktuelno points out that “there are too many different interests, ideological, political and value differences”.
“What do the DF, which is an openly pro-Russian and pro-Serbian nationalist party, have in common with what they call the URA? That is why I think that it is a coalition that constantly walks the thin line of survival and maintains them only because they know that any leap leads to the loss of power, ie new elections. Namely, new elections, and it can be assumed that they will be before the deadline, can bring a completely new situation. Things are rearranging for everyone,” Vurusic told Aktuelno.
He believes that each of the members of the coalition is convinced that they will be the ones who will dominate the political and social life of Montenegro.
“Until they take over most of the levers in the country – security services, media, education, judiciary, sources of income – they will tolerate each other, and only then, when they feel that they have taken over these institutions, they will provoke early elections and start a real debate between them. For now, each of them thinks that he needs the other one to take over those levers that guarantee that they will win the next elections as well”, explains Vurušić.
The crisis will last
He does not see that the crisis in Montenegro will pass soon, nor that it will pass peacefully.
“DPS is in a ‘low start’ and is waiting for its chance. Of course, the ruling coalition knows that and that keeps them together. The question is also how much the DPS has strengthened to return to power because they are also burdened with their own problems, even an unclean conscience. Unfortunately, as it looks now, the crisis will last, and I don’t know if it will be resolved by new elections or they could deepen it further, regardless of the winner. For the DPS, a return to power is of existential importance, because the loss of new elections would diminish their political influence, and also the defeat of the pro-Serb parties, which today form the ruling coalition, would be a big blow for them. They would spill what they have now, no matter how dignified and uncertain it may be. Everyone is now careful and tense,” says Vurusic.
Belgrade no longer hides its conquest ambitions
He appreciates that by visiting Belgrade, Krivokapic tried to manifest Serbia's support, precisely because of the crisis in the ruling coalition, and to show himself as a player without whom it is impossible to rule.
“The regime there and its flagships no longer hide their ‘conquering’ ambitions, denying Montenegro as a state, considering it as part of ‘Serbian lands’, and especially rejecting Montenegrins as a separate nation and ethical-cultural identity. In that, they have the wholehearted support of the Serbian Orthodox Church, which sometimes takes the lead and acts like a political party. It will be interesting how Krivokapic and his government will react to Vucic's calls and persuasions, and perhaps threats, to include Montenegro in the Open Balkans project”, says Vurusic.
He pointed out that Serbia's interference in Montenegro is visible, because, as he says, the DF and some other parties are Vucic's “flattened branch”.
“The regime of Aleksandar Vucic is burdened with great pressures. There is Kosovo, which he wants to “freeze” with the help of Russia because he knows that the matter is lost and makes it as difficult as he can, then there are complications around BiH and the Republika Srpska, so he needs some “success”, and he thinks it could bring him Montenegro. I assume that here, as in other crisis hotspots in the Balkans, the USA and the EU will be more engaged. However, we see that it is not going very smoothly – we now have a stalemate in BiH after the recent half-success at the UN, as it seems now, the EU has left Zoran Zaev stranded, it is somehow mild on the issue of Montenegro. He wanders, rotten compromises are made, but in the long run I am not such a pessimist. I hope I am not mistaken and that both the United States and the new German government will be more engaged and will not leave this part of Europe stranded, because the enlargement of the EU and NATO to the Balkans only brings peace and stability. Everything else only gives birth to new dangerous crises“, believes Vurušić.
Europe does not want enlargement to unstable countries
He points out that Europe is not up to enlargement to unstable countries, which was recently confirmed at the Summit in Slovenia.
“We see that Brussels has problems with Hungary and Poland, it is even speculating about the possible exit of those two countries from the EU. I don't think that will happen and that this is only part of the blackmail that the regimes there use to protect their positions in relations with the EU. Brussels will send messages of encouragement and hope to the countries of the Western Balkans, because not that they will not, but they must not give up this area, so that others do not enter it. Russia is just waiting for it to ‘land’ there, and that then destabilizes Europe, which politicians in Brussels are aware of,” Vurusic concluded.